Ecosphere News | Environment & Climate
Europe’s wildfire crisis could become significantly worse by the end of this century even if global warming is limited to relatively low levels, according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
The study, published on 20 August 2026, projects that the area of Europe affected by wildfires could increase by around 39% by 2070-2100 compared with the 2000–2030 period, even under a low-emissions scenario corresponding to approximately 1.8°C of global warming. Under a high-emissions scenario, with warming reaching around 3.6°C, the annual area affected by wildfire could increase by approximately 192%-nearly triple today's level.
Researchers attribute the growing risk primarily to increasingly hot, dry and windy conditions, which dry vegetation and create more favourable conditions for fires to ignite and spread. The projected increase is expected to be particularly significant around the Mediterranean and increasingly across Western and Central Europe, including areas that historically experienced fewer major wildfires.
However, the research also provides an important opportunity for action. Scientists found that improvements in wildfire prevention, early detection, preparedness and firefighting could substantially reduce the amount of land ultimately burned. This means the future wildfire crisis is not determined by climate change alone-how societies manage landscapes and respond to fire will also make a major difference.
The warning comes as Europe is already experiencing another exceptionally severe wildfire season. According to the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, 616,202 hectares had been affected by fires across the EU by 19 August 2026, more than twice the 20-year average for the same date, although still below the record-breaking 2025 season. Very extreme fire danger conditions were forecast across parts of Central and Eastern Europe.
Recent fires illustrate the scale of the challenge. In Belgium, the country’s largest recorded wildfire burned around 3,000 hectares in the High Fens nature reserve, while fires across Spain, Greece, Croatia, Portugal and other countries have forced evacuations and caused deaths and major environmental damage.
The findings underline a clear message for Europe: cutting greenhouse-gas emissions remains essential, but climate mitigation must be accompanied by stronger wildfire prevention and landscape management. Experts increasingly argue that Europe needs to move beyond a strategy focused mainly on suppressing fires after they start and invest more heavily in prevention, fuel management, early-warning systems, resilient landscapes and community preparedness.
The study's message is therefore both a warning and an opportunity. Climate change is increasing the conditions for more dangerous wildfires, but effective prevention and fire management can significantly limit the damage. Europe’s choices today will help determine whether future fire seasons become manageable emergencies-or increasingly destructive disasters.
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