Greenland Ice Melt Expected to Significantly Weaken Atlantic Ocean Currents, But Not Trigger Shutdown This Century: Study

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Greenland Ice Melt Expected to Significantly Weaken Atlantic Ocean Currents, But Not Trigger Shutdown This Century: Study

Greenland Ice Melt Expected to Significantly Weaken Atlantic Ocean Currents, But Not Trigger Shutdown This Century: Study

Ganesh Khatiwada 2026-07-22 10:43:00

Kathmandu, July 22, 2026
A new scientific study has found that accelerating meltwater from Greenland's ice sheet is expected to significantly weaken one of Earth's most important ocean circulation systems-the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)-but is unlikely to cause a complete shutdown during the 21st century.
Published in the journal Science Advances, the research shows that freshwater released from Greenland's melting ice sheet could contribute an additional 10-20% weakening of the AMOC by 2100, on top of the slowdown already projected due to global warming. Looking further ahead, the study suggests the cumulative weakening could reach around 40% by 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high.
The AMOC is a vast network of ocean currents that transports warm, salty water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic while returning colder, deeper water southward. This circulation helps regulate temperatures, rainfall patterns and weather systems across Europe, North America, Africa and other parts of the world.
Scientists explain that increasing volumes of freshwater from Greenland reduce the salinity and density of North Atlantic surface waters, making it more difficult for water to sink and sustain the circulation. Although this process is expected to substantially weaken the AMOC, the new modelling indicates that Greenland's meltwater alone is unlikely to trigger an abrupt collapse before the end of this century.
Researchers caution, however, that a weaker AMOC could still have significant global consequences. These include shifts in rainfall patterns, increased regional sea-level rise along parts of the eastern United States, changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries, and more frequent climate extremes.
The findings add important context to the ongoing scientific debate over the future of the AMOC. While some recent studies have warned that climate models may underestimate the risk of a future tipping point under continued high greenhouse gas emissions, the latest research suggests that Greenland's ice-sheet melt, by itself, is expected to drive a strong weakening rather than a complete shutdown of the Atlantic circulation during this century.
Climate scientists emphasize that reducing global greenhouse gas emissions remains essential to limiting long-term ice-sheet loss, slowing ocean circulation changes and reducing the risks of severe climate impacts worldwide.
#EcosphereNews #ClimateChange #Greenland #AMOC #OceanCurrents #GlobalWarming #Cryosphere #ClimateScience #SeaLevelRise #Sustainability #Environment #EarthSystem