ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, October 13, 2026 - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body responsible for assessing the latest scientific evidence on climate change, is facing growing pressure to postpone the publication of its Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), raising concerns about whether the findings will be available in time to guide critical global climate negotiations in 2028.
According to reporting by The Guardian environment editor Fiona Harvey on October 13 and a Reuters investigation published on October 9, IPCC member governments remain divided over the publication timetable for the assessment. The reports are being prepared during the IPCC's seventh assessment cycle, which began in 2023.
The disagreement comes as representatives of the IPCC's 195 member states meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to discuss the timeline for completing three major scientific assessments covering the physical science of climate change, its impacts and adaptation, and options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, India and China Seek More Time
According to The Guardian, Saudi Arabia and Russia are leading efforts to postpone the publication of the assessment from 2028 to 2029, with India and China also supporting a later schedule.
Countries advocating additional time argue that a longer preparation and review period would enable scientists from developing countries to contribute more effectively to the assessment. They have raised concerns about unequal scientific resources, limited research capacity and the challenges faced by experts who undertake IPCC assessment work alongside their regular professional responsibilities.
However, the proposed delay has drawn opposition from climate-vulnerable countries that want the findings available before the next major round of international climate negotiations.
Reuters reported that the disagreement reflects broader divisions among governments over scientific participation, climate policy and the responsibilities of countries in addressing global warming.
The reasons presented by governments supporting a later timetable should be distinguished from concerns raised by scientists and climate advocates that postponement could weaken the influence of current scientific evidence on international decision-making.
Why the 2028 Deadline Matters
The AR7 assessment is expected to provide an updated scientific foundation for international climate policy, including decisions on emissions reduction targets, climate adaptation, climate finance and the consequences of global warming.
The proposed 2028 schedule is particularly significant because COP33, the UN climate conference expected later that year, is intended to be an important milestone for assessing global progress under the Paris Agreement.
The Paris Agreement seeks to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.
The latest assessment is expected to help governments evaluate the gap between their existing commitments and the emissions reductions required to meet those objectives.
If the reports are delayed until 2029, policymakers attending COP33 could have to rely on the previous comprehensive IPCC assessment, completed in 2021-2023, despite significant developments in climate science and growing evidence of climate-related risks.
Reuters reported that the dispute has continued for nearly three years and that the lack of agreement threatens to leave governments without a comprehensive, updated scientific assessment at a critical moment for international climate negotiations.
Three Major Scientific Assessments at Stake
The IPCC is preparing three main contributions to its Seventh Assessment Report:
Working Group I - Physical Science Basis: Examines observed and projected climate changes, the causes of global warming, climate processes and regional climate information.
Working Group II - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Assesses the consequences of climate change for people, ecosystems, infrastructure and livelihoods, as well as options for adaptation.
Working Group III - Mitigation of Climate Change: Evaluates ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit further warming.
The IPCC has also indicated that the seventh assessment cycle will address important issues, including climate finance and responses to irreversible climate-related harm. These subjects are particularly significant for countries facing severe climate impacts despite having contributed relatively little to historical global emissions.
According to the IPCC's official information, the three Working Group reports are being developed through a multistage scientific drafting and review process. The final publication dates depend on decisions by the member governments.
Climate-Vulnerable Countries Oppose Postponement
Countries advocating stronger climate action have expressed concern that a delay would undermine the timely use of scientific evidence.
The Guardian reported that ministers from 34 members of the High Ambition Coalition called for the assessment to be expedited. The European Union and the Least Developed Countries grouping have also opposed postponement.
For climate-vulnerable nations, access to the latest scientific evidence is essential for strengthening disaster preparedness, developing adaptation strategies, mobilising climate finance and establishing stronger national climate commitments.
The disagreement also highlights a wider challenge: ensuring that researchers from developing countries have meaningful opportunities to contribute to global climate science while maintaining a timetable that allows policymakers to use the findings when they are most needed.
A more inclusive scientific process is important, but vulnerable countries are concerned that postponing the assessment could leave major international decisions without the benefit of the latest available evidence.
Implications for Nepal and the Global South
For Nepal, the timing of AR7 is especially relevant to climate-induced floods, landslides, glacial hazards, changing rainfall patterns and the growing need for climate-resilient infrastructure.
Updated scientific assessments could strengthen the evidence base for disaster-risk reduction, adaptation planning and international discussions on loss and damage. They could also help inform decisions about the scale and accessibility of climate finance needed by countries with limited resources to respond to escalating climate risks.
The debate raises an important climate-justice question: how can developing countries secure fair representation in global scientific assessments without delaying the delivery of evidence needed to protect vulnerable communities?
For Nepal and other climate-vulnerable countries, both objectives matter. Scientific assessments must reflect knowledge and experiences from across the world, and their findings must be available in time to inform urgent decisions.
Final Decision Remains Crucial
The Addis Ababa discussions are taking place at a critical stage in the preparation of AR7. However, the latest reporting available on October 13 does not establish that the IPCC has formally approved a postponement to 2029.
The publication timetable remains a matter for agreement among member governments. The outcome will determine whether the three major assessments can inform COP33 in 2028 as originally intended or whether governments will have to wait longer for the complete updated assessment.
The dispute underscores the importance of protecting the integrity of climate science, ensuring equitable international participation and making scientific evidence available when it can most effectively guide global climate action.
Sources: The Guardian, Fiona Harvey, October 13, 2026; Reuters, October 9, 2026; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), official AR7 assessment-cycle updates.
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