Kathmandu, Nepal| May 30, 2025
A groundbreaking study published in Communications Earth & Environment reveals that limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels-a central goal of the Paris Agreement-may still lead to catastrophic sea-level rise due to accelerated melting of polar ice sheets. The research indicates that even the current warming level of approximately 1.2°C could commit the planet to several meters of sea-level rise over the coming centuries, posing severe risks to coastal populations and challenging adaptation measures .
Key Findings:
Accelerated Ice Loss: Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s, now contributing significantly to global sea-level rise.
Potential for Rapid Retreat: Sustained current warming levels could trigger rapid ice sheet retreat, leading to high rates of sea-level rise that would challenge adaptation efforts.
Historical Context: Analysis of past warm periods suggests that even small temperature increases can lead to abrupt, large-scale ice loss, emphasizing the sensitivity of ice sheets to warming.
Implications for Coastal Communities:
Approximately 230 million people live within one meter of current sea levels. Even a sea-level rise of one meter could displace millions, with higher rises posing existential threats to low-lying regions. The study warns that adaptation becomes nearly impossible at sea-level rise rates of one centimeter per year, potentially leading to massive inland migration.
Urgent Call for Action:
Lead author Professor Chris Stokes of Durham University emphasizes that while limiting warming to 1.5°C is crucial, it may not be sufficient to prevent significant sea-level rise. "Every fraction of a degree really matters for ice sheets," he states, highlighting the need for more aggressive emission reductions and adaptation strategies .
Conclusion:
This study underscores the urgency of reevaluating current climate targets and implementing more robust measures to mitigate and adapt to the impending challenges posed by sea-level rise. Policymakers and global leaders must act decisively to safeguard vulnerable coastal populations and ecosystems.
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