Kathmandu, August 2, 2026
El Niño conditions continue to strengthen steadily and are expected to influence weather patterns across large parts of the world during the August-October season, according to the latest climate outlook from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The updated forecast indicates that the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific is likely to interact with record-breaking ocean temperatures and long-term global warming, increasing the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall events and disruptions to agriculture, water resources, health systems and energy supplies in many regions.
Regions expected to experience above-average temperatures
The WMO outlook suggests that most land areas globally are likely to experience warmer-than-normal conditions, with the strongest signals across:
Africa
Southern Europe
The Arabian Peninsula
The Indian subcontinent
Eastern Asia
Central America
The Caribbean
Southern Africa
Much of South America
New Zealand
These temperature anomalies could increase heat stress on vulnerable populations, reduce crop productivity in already water-stressed regions and raise electricity demand for cooling.
Wetter-than-normal conditions forecast in several regions
Enhanced rainfall is expected across:
The Greater Horn of Africa
Parts of Central Asia
Southern Europe
Western North America
Southeastern South America
While increased rainfall may improve water availability in some drought-affected areas, it could also heighten the risk of flash floods, landslides, river flooding and infrastructure damage, particularly where soils are already saturated.
Drier conditions likely for the Indian subcontinent and other areas
The forecast also points to below-normal rainfall across:
The Indian subcontinent
Southern and eastern Australia
Southern Central America
Parts of the Caribbean
Northwestern South America
Northern Europe
For South Asia, including Nepal and neighboring countries, a tendency toward drier-than-normal conditions during parts of the season could affect monsoon performance, irrigation supplies, hydropower generation and food production, although local weather variability remains possible.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole adds another layer of risk
In addition to El Niño, climate models indicate that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop during the coming months. Under this pattern, the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than average, while the eastern Indian Ocean becomes cooler than average.
A positive IOD can reinforce some El Niño-related impacts by altering atmospheric circulation and moisture transport across the Indian Ocean region. Historically, this combination has been associated with reduced rainfall in parts of South and Southeast Asia and enhanced rainfall in East Africa.
WMO urges early action
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that the current situation provides an opportunity for governments and communities to prepare before the most severe impacts occur.
“This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold. WMO and its Members are committed to ensuring that credible and relevant climate information reaches those that need it most,” she said.
Growing concern over climate extremes
Scientists note that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, but its effects are now unfolding in a world that is already significantly warmer due to human-induced climate change. Global sea surface temperatures have remained exceptionally high in recent years, increasing the likelihood that El Niño-related events could produce more intense heatwaves, heavier downpours and more severe drought conditions than similar events in the past.
Implications for Nepal and South Asia
For Nepal, experts say the evolving El Niño and positive IOD conditions warrant close monitoring of monsoon rainfall distribution, water storage levels, agricultural planning and disaster preparedness systems. Authorities may need to strengthen early warning services, drought contingency measures, climate-resilient farming practices and water resource management as seasonal conditions evolve.
The WMO stressed that seasonal climate outlooks describe probabilities and broad regional tendencies rather than exact local weather forecasts, and national meteorological agencies should continue to provide location-specific updates.
As El Niño intensifies, climate scientists are urging countries to use the available lead time to protect lives, secure food and water supplies, strengthen infrastructure resilience and improve preparedness for climate-related disasters that could emerge in the months ahead.
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