Kathmandu, May 27: The National Statistics Office has projected Gandaki Province to achieve the highest economic growth rate of 5.51% in the fiscal year 2081/82, marking a significant milestone for the province. This growth places Gandaki ahead of Bagmati Province, which is anticipated to grow at 5.18%, according to the recently released provincial GDP estimates.
Karnali Province also shows promising signs of recovery, with its growth rate expected to increase from 3.26% last year to 4.74% this year. Similarly, Lumbini Province is forecasted to grow at 4.70%, surpassing the national average growth rate of 4.61%. In contrast, Sudurpaschim Province is projected to have the lowest growth rate of 3.32%.
Economic Size: Bagmati Province Dominates
Despite Gandaki's strong growth performance, Bagmati remains the economic powerhouse of Nepal, contributing 36.52% to the national economy. The total economic size of Nepal is projected to be NPR 6.1 trillion, with Koshi Province following Bagmati at 15.90%, and Lumbini and Madhesh contributing 14.23% and 13.16%, respectively.
Gandaki Province contributes 8.98% to the national economy, while Sudurpaschim and Karnali contribute 7.03% and 4.19%, respectively. The data indicates a slight decline in the economic contribution of Koshi, Gandaki, Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim compared to last year, while Madhesh and Bagmati see marginal increases.
Income Disparities Across Provinces
In terms of per capita income, Bagmati Province residents continue to lead, with an estimated income of USD 2,601 this fiscal year, up from USD 2,492 last year. Gandaki Province ranks second with a per capita income of USD 1,620. However, Madhesh Province lags significantly, with its residents earning only USD 932—less than half the national average of USD 1,496 and nearly three times lower than Bagmati's.
Agriculture Remains Vital in Most Provinces
While Bagmati's economy thrives on wholesale and retail trade and real estate services, agriculture remains the backbone of all other provinces. Public administration and defense are also critical contributors in Gandaki, Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim provinces.
Implications for Policy and Development
The data underscores the pressing need to address regional disparities in economic growth and per capita income. While provinces like Gandaki and Bagmati demonstrate robust growth and economic contributions, regions like Madhesh and Sudurpaschim require targeted interventions to close the income gap and boost growth.
As Nepal moves forward, fostering inclusive economic policies and sustainable development strategies will be critical to ensuring balanced growth across provinces.
