Kathmandu, August 22, 2025 - China’s carbon dioxide emissions declined by 1% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, marking a significant shift as the world’s largest emitter continues to expand its clean energy capacity. The findings come from a study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), published in partnership with Carbon Brief.
The drop in emissions is largely attributed to a rapid surge in renewable energy-particularly solar-combined with reduced industrial output in key construction-related sectors.
Power Sector Sees Major Shift
Emissions from China’s power sector, the country’s largest source of greenhouse gases, fell 3% in the six-month period. According to CREA’s lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta, this decline was driven by falling coal use (down 3%) and a corresponding rise in renewable power generation. While natural gas use increased by 6%, the bulk of the reduction came from record levels of clean energy deployment.
China installed an unprecedented 212 gigawatts of new solar capacity in the first half of 2025-double the amount added during the same period last year. For the first time, both solar and wind power generation individually surpassed hydropower output, highlighting a structural change in the country’s energy mix.
Industrial Slowdown Reduces Emissions
A slowdown in China’s troubled property market also contributed to the emissions decline. Output dropped in carbon-intensive industries such as cement (-4%), steel (-3%), building materials (-3%), and metals (-1%), further easing pressure on the country’s overall emissions profile.
However, this trend was offset by growth in the chemicals sector, where the use of coal to produce synthetic fuels and petrochemicals surged by 20%. Analysts warn that this expansion has added around 3% to China’s emissions since 2020 and could contribute another 2% increase by the end of the decade if left unchecked.
Signs of a Structural Transition
Unlike previous emissions declines in China, which were typically linked to economic downturns or crises, experts say the current reduction reflects a structural transition towards clean energy. In the first half of 2025, clean power generation grew by around 270 terawatt-hours (TWh), while electricity demand rose by only 170 TWh-showing that renewables are now outpacing demand growth.
“The fall in emissions indicates that China’s clean energy expansion is starting to bend the curve of carbon output,” Myllyvirta noted. “If sustained, this could mark the beginning of a long-term downward trajectory for China’s greenhouse gas emissions.”
Global Implications
As the world’s largest emitter, China’s energy transition carries immense weight for global climate goals. Experts believe the country is at a policy crossroads, with its upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) and updated international climate pledges expected to determine whether the recent progress translates into permanent emissions reductions.
For now, the combination of record solar deployment, slowing construction activity, and declining coal use signals that China’s long-anticipated emissions peak may already have arrived.
