ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia - September 10, 2026: The Greater Horn of Africa is preparing for a potentially intense October-December 2026 rainy season as a strengthening El Niño climate pattern increases the likelihood of above-normal rainfall across several vulnerable parts of the region.
The warning comes at a critical time for Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and neighbouring countries, where the October-December (OND) season provides a major share of annual rainfall. According to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the season contributes up to 70 percent of annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, making the coming months particularly important for food security, water resources, agriculture and livelihoods.
ICPAC's latest regional outlook indicates an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions across the Greater Horn of Africa. The forecast gives a 90 percent likelihood of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya. Some areas of Somalia, Kenya and neighbouring countries could receive exceptionally high seasonal rainfall, with more than 400 millimetres possible in parts of the region.
The expected rainfall could bring important benefits, including improved water availability, pasture conditions and agricultural production. But excessive rainfall also carries serious risks.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that unusually heavy rainfall could increase the likelihood of flash floods, riverine flooding, landslides, crop losses, infrastructure damage and outbreaks of water- and vector-borne diseases. Disruptions to health, food and nutrition services could further increase humanitarian pressures in already vulnerable communities.
El Niño Has Already Strengthened
The climate signal behind the concern is becoming increasingly clear.
WMO's latest El Niño update, issued in September, states that El Niño is firmly established and expected to strengthen further. Forecasts indicate a near-100 percent likelihood that the event will persist through September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to contribute to the regional rainfall pattern. Together, these large-scale climate drivers are expected to influence rainfall and temperature patterns across eastern Africa during the final months of the year.
Historical experience also provides an important warning. ICPAC has identified 1997 and 2023 as relevant analogue years for the current climate conditions because both years were associated with wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the region during the OND season. However, ICPAC stresses that the 2026 forecast-not historical analogues-should remain the primary basis for decision-making.
From Forecast to Anticipatory Action
Recognising the potential risks, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), through ICPAC and in collaboration with governments and humanitarian and development partners, is preparing to turn climate information into early action.
A High-Level Ministerial Forum on El Niño Preparedness in the Horn of Africa is scheduled for 15-17 September 2026 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with participation also available virtually.
The forum is expected to bring together ministers, government representatives, technical experts and partners to assess national and regional preparedness, identify priority risks, strengthen cross-border coordination and advance anticipatory financing. It will culminate in a proposed IGAD Ministerial Call to Action and a Regional Preparedness and Early Action Technical Report.
The central message is increasingly clear: a forecast is valuable only when it leads to timely action.
Authorities and humanitarian agencies are being urged to use the available climate forecasts to pre-position relief supplies, strengthen early-warning systems, identify communities at highest risk, prepare evacuation and emergency-response mechanisms, protect critical infrastructure and ensure that financial resources can be released before disasters occur.
For countries repeatedly exposed to climate extremes, anticipatory action can mean the difference between a manageable emergency and a large-scale humanitarian disaster.
A Wider Climate Warning
The coming El Niño season also highlights a broader challenge facing the Greater Horn of Africa: climate risks are becoming increasingly interconnected.
Communities can simultaneously face drought, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, floods, food insecurity and disease risks within relatively short periods. ICPAC has already warned of contrasting climate conditions across the region during 2026, with drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the northern Greater Horn during July-September followed by wetter-than-normal conditions across many equatorial and southern areas during October-December.
For Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and their neighbours, the priority now is not simply to wait for the rains and respond after disaster strikes.
It is to act before the emergency unfolds.
Strengthening regional cooperation, sharing forecasts across borders, investing in resilient infrastructure, financing anticipatory action and ensuring that early warnings reach the last mile will be essential to reducing loss of life and protecting vulnerable communities.
As the Greater Horn of Africa approaches another potentially high-impact rainy season, the region has something that previous generations often lacked: advance climate information.
The challenge now is to turn that information into action-early enough to save lives, protect livelihoods and prevent a climate hazard from becoming a humanitarian crisis.
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