Kathmandu, May 23, 2025 - The Department of Water and Weather Forecasting has announced that Nepal is likely to experience above-average minimum and maximum temperatures during this year’s monsoon season, spanning from May 31 to October 1. This forecast highlights the ongoing impacts of climate change in the region.
Temperature Trends and Regional Analysis
According to the department's forecast, several regions are at a higher risk of exceeding average temperatures. These include:
55% to 65% Probability of Above-Average Maximum Temperatures: Northeastern Sudurpaschim, northern Karnali, northern Lumbini, western Gandaki, western Madhesh, and central Bagmati Provinces.
35% to 45% Probability: Eastern Madhesh and central Gandaki Provinces.
45% to 55% Probability: Remaining regions of the country.
Nepalgunj, a city known for its extreme heat, recorded the year’s highest temperature of 41.4°C on May 15, underscoring the trend of rising temperatures nationwide.
Consistent Increase in Minimum Temperatures
Meteorologist Sudarshan Humagai from the Climate Analysis Section noted that both minimum and maximum temperatures have been steadily rising since 2020. Notably, minimum temperatures have shown a consistent increase. "This could be an impact of climate change," said Humagai. "Minimum temperatures have been rising across all seasons, including winter, monsoon, and pre-monsoon." He further added that maximum temperatures are increasing by 0.5°C per decade, while minimum temperatures are rising by 0.2°C per decade.
This year, the probability of above-average minimum temperatures is as follows:
55% to 65% Probability: Most parts of Karnali and Bagmati Provinces, central Lumbini, western Madhesh, and the Tarai region of Koshi Province.
35% to 45% Probability: Southwestern Sudurpaschim, northeastern Gandaki, and northern Koshi Provinces.
45% to 55% Probability: Other parts of the country.
Hills Experiencing Rising Heat
Traditionally cooler hill regions are also witnessing an increase in temperatures. Meteorologist Rojan Lamichhane explained that while the local and moisture-laden winds from the Bay of Bengal have moderated the temperature rise, occasional hot days are being observed. "This summer season, maximum temperatures have already crossed 40°C in regions like Nepalgunj, Bhairahawa, and Dhangadhi," he noted. "Such heat not only impacts the Tarai but also the hill regions."
Causes of Climate Change
Addressing the causes of climate change in Nepal, Humagai highlighted both natural and human-induced factors. While natural processes like changes in the Earth’s orbit and solar activity contribute slowly to climate shifts, human activities, particularly carbon emissions, are accelerating the process. "Forests and oceans have limited capacities to absorb carbon dioxide, and human-induced emissions are overwhelming these natural systems," he said. He also pointed to rising sea surface temperatures and seasonal climatic variations as influencing factors.
Rainfall Outlook
Despite the rising temperatures, the department predicts above-average rainfall in most parts of Nepal during the monsoon season. Probabilities for rainfall exceeding the average range from 35% to 65% across various regions.
Implications and Preparedness
Experts have warned that rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns can have severe impacts on public healthand agriculture
